Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 2.123695 2.855005 3.870437 5.427246 7.836583e+00 1.157424e+01 1.814020e+01
2025-02-09 1.550104 2.408039 3.852106 6.645582 1.242758e+01 2.531206e+01 6.206737e+01
2025-02-16 1.115485 1.937760 3.553693 7.382096 1.786758e+01 5.266681e+01 2.435111e+02
2025-02-23 0.782533 1.479110 3.024161 7.360652 2.271895e+01 1.003914e+02 1.156152e+03
2025-03-02 0.553827 1.117452 2.493915 6.949164 2.691733e+01 1.849957e+02 9.075367e+03
2025-03-09 0.440423 0.953536 2.347752 7.680927 4.003424e+01 5.554103e+02 8.524145e+06
2025-03-16 0.353842 0.813703 2.186082 8.318981 5.920942e+01 2.151642e+03 NaN
2025-03-23 0.294856 0.718312 2.103845 9.379954 9.633852e+01 1.855121e+04 NaN
2025-03-30 0.247507 0.634007 2.006789 10.400648 1.586387e+02 1.077465e+06 NaN
2025-04-06 0.199382 0.526898 1.752178 10.037353 2.054078e+02 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 0.160490 0.433787 1.495874 9.245058 2.410987e+02 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.138507 0.387302 1.412030 9.843879 3.929631e+02 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.123320 0.360043 1.411321 11.599838 9.192859e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.111899 0.341553 1.445682 14.296541 3.005228e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.098470 0.310010 1.386034 15.754198 8.633940e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.084163 0.269561 1.243012 15.327456 1.692135e+04 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.071364 0.230872 1.084149 14.039599 2.536448e+04 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.064387 0.213756 1.052549 15.545970 1.613006e+05 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.058069 0.197122 1.011834 16.848349 2.779204e+06 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.053310 0.185567 0.998928 19.191660 NaN NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.048924 0.174101 0.977952 21.475323 NaN NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.043408 0.155634 0.887063 20.418662 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.038261 0.137512 0.787466 18.406246 NaN NaN NaN